Who beats Trump in 2020? Right now, no one

It once seemed pretty clear to me that Donald Trump would be vulnerable in 2020, not just to a hypothetical strong Democrat, but to a Republican primary challenger. I now doubt such a person will emerge.

By any rational measure, Trump remains a serially dishonest boor. He is, however, a serially dishonest boor with a strong economy. Additionally, both of his picks for the Supreme Court have been eminently palatable to a large majority of Republicans, and he seems to have far more clarity on the Middle East than did his predecessor.

Frankly, I wonder whether such a one-two-three is assailable.

Something that I think both Trump supporters and detractors often miss is that we can accept as legitimate the climate of discontent that gave rise to this presidency without agreeing that Trump was the best remedy (or even a good one). There is a substantial, double-edged any-port-in-a-storm factor at work here.

First, the semi-polite incredulity of the deep, talented Republican field of candidates during the 2016 primary season lasted far too long for any of them to mount an effective counterattack. By the time it was clear that Trump was a serious threat, too much ground had been ceded.

Second, the Democrats nominated perhaps the only plausible candidate who could lose to Trump. There might have been more negative motivation to keep Hillary Clinton out of the Oval Office than there was positive to put Trump in. For whom would that factor have been more substantial? It’s a short list, if it even exists.

So where are we? Well, despite the fever dreams of the leftist Twitterverse, there is no scandal coming to take Trump down. What would it be? Scandals aren’t scandals anymore. It’s arguable whether the mechanisms we have for addressing such even remain sufficiently functional. There is too much executive overreach, and too little congressional oversight. That’s been going on a lot longer than the past two administrations, but there’s little doubt that it’s accelerated.

(Remember in the Constitution where it says “follow the money”? Me either.)

During Obama’s second term, I began envisioning the candidate who would win in 2016. S/he would be an informed, principled, articulate, and dignified patriot. S/he would inspire. His/her appeal would be broad.

Trump wasn’t, and isn’t, that candidate. And barring an exceptional and unforeseen turn, that candidate, no matter who it is or from which side of the aisle s/he emerges, won’t defeat him in 2020.

Who beats Trump in 2020? Right now, no one

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