Yes, I stayed too long at the fair with Sarah Palin

I loved Sarah Palin. She energized me in 2008. I didn’t much care about the race until she was part of it.

For years I believed that if the stupid, overcautious McCain campaign would have just turned Palin loose, McCain would have won. That’s not such a ridiculous thought even now, and if you find it so, may I suggest that you’re misremembering how popular she was. Yes, they lost, but Palin was the main (only?) reason they were even competitive.

After the loss, and after her controversial resignation of the Alaska governorship, the very best thing she could have done for herself politically would have been to drop (mostly) out of sight for a few years. Reflect. Raise a little money here and there. But mostly, prepare—for 2016 or 2020. Develop deeper understanding of issues with the highest-quality experts. Give an occasional high-profile speech, but stay out of sight most of the time. Keep folks wanting more.

So, in this alternate universe, we (mostly) haven’t seen her for six years. Then, in the spring of 2015, Sarah Palin, 51, announces a six-week book tour to promote her new book, which reads an awful lot like a serious policy map. At every stop, she’s asked if she’s running for president. Every time, she says she’s gravely concerned about the direction of the country, and she’s carefully evaluating how she might best make a difference.

That’s a political juggernaut in the making.

Of course, we all know how it actually went down. Sarah Palin told us with her sustained actions that she enjoyed being a celebrity—a rich celebrity—more than she did being a serious candidate for high office. And that’s fine. We all have choices to make. But too many people continued to regard her as a serious political force, long after it was thoroughly evident she wasn’t. I am one of those people.

Despite media portrayals to the contrary, Sarah Palin’s fatal flaw is not a deficit of intelligence. Nor is it one of belief. Had she been elected to high office, I suspect I’d have been as fine with her on the issues as I’d ever be with anyone. We’d have been out of step on several social issues, but no more so than anyone else the GOP is likely to run.

No, Palin’s problem is primarily one of discipline. She reminds me in some ways of Mike Huckabee. Their styles aren’t particularly similar, but they share an infuriating trait. They’re both smart enough and charismatic enough to be of substantial value to conservatism, but neither of them has the discretion to channel their talents effectively.

I’m sorry, Sarah. I think we should see other people.

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