We’ve kind of had our hands full this week, so I haven’t had much to say about the imminent H1N1/swine-bird-human hybrid/Type A influenza pandemic. A few thoughts:
- By now it should be clear to everyone that the mortality rate in Mexico is not a reliable indicator for this virus’s effects elsewhere. I don’t know exactly what’s going on down there, but mathematically, it’s clear there’s another factor besides swine flu infection. The degree to which Mexico’s mortality numbers are still obviously informing public policy decisions in the United States is ridiculous.
- Speaking of said public policy decisions, several schools in this area have committed to closing for a total of seven school days (last Thursday and Friday, plus the entire upcoming week), with possibly more days to follow. At least three schools where no infection has been found are included. This is totally unreasonable. Under ideal (read: specifically created in a laboratory) conditions, influenza viruses can survive on surfaces for a maximum of 48 hours. Hence, 48 hours after the removal of all people from a school building, the building is clean. No top-to-bottom scrubbing is necessary. Hell, no cursory wipe of the counter is necessary. If you want to spend public money to battle the infection, then make sternly-worded stay-home-if-you’re-sick robocalls and set up screening teams at each affected school—but keep them open.
- I’m not often horrified, but I was when I heard Wednesday night that we had suspected swine flu in the area, because Lea was recovering from surgery at the hospital. The hospital is the last place in the world I want to be in the middle of an irrational and widespread pathogen panic. Fortunately, my fellow man exceeded my expectations. I did get to see a packed pediatric ER, but it was only about 50 people, as opposed to 1,000.
My considered view is that in terms of behavior, both personal and institutional, there is no evidence BaconFlu should be treated any differently from seasonal influenza. Wash your hands, cough into your elbow, don’t pick your nose, and what have you. Here are some more tips if you need them.
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Well, it is now in our school. At least one of the cases is in my daughter’s class (if my info is reliable). So, I must learn to go with the flow, so to speak, since we are supposed to remain closed along with the city elementary schools.
I have a sneaking suspicion that if they ever pin point a patient zero in our area, they were at Panoply. LOL.
I really, really feel for our principal who will be slammed with parental opinions that must run the entire spectrum. Some are angry at the possibility of extending school. But, my kid will be severely penalized if they don’t extend the year, because he’s just getting back on track bringing up his grades. He needs his assignments.
Dude, I’m still skeptical there are any cases locally. This local H1N1 scare came up early last week when, at the time, there were less than 100 confirmed cases in the whole of the US. Less than 200 WORLDWIDE.
Let’s look at the best odds on which to book a winning bet we had a local case. The bad odds being somewhere around 6,700,000,000:200.
You know I gamble… 300,000,000:100 (I’ll leave the reduction of the odds as an exercise to the reader). Mm-hmm… I ain’t takin’ that bet, hoss. And those were the GOOD odds.
If the “lottery odds” have hit and there is a local case. Furthermore, it’s in a child… Who was the parent letting their elementary aged child travel abroad? Apparently alone since the parents did not test positive, hence the child didn’t get it from mom or dad.
Carey
Limestone County just shrugs and moves on with the school year. Kudos to Dr. Carroll and Matt Scott on that one. It’s flu. Drink your liquids, stay in bed, get better.
Whoever the PR agent is for this thing has done a bang-up job. Catchy name, check. Slow news cycle, check. Work like “pandemic,” check. Presidential murmurs of health care reform, check.
Is the CDC up for more Appropriations money?
I fear the long-term danger here is that we really will have an epidemic/pandemic of a strain of flu (or, God forbid, something less well understood)–something that really is particularly virulent and/or deadly–and too few will take it seriously because of this overreaction.
I think I’m going to start calling this the wolf flu.